Australia’s big banks have already raised fixed home loan rates ahead of the Reserve Bank’s decision on Tuesday 29 September 2026, with Commonwealth Bank lifting its two-year fixed owner-occupier rate by 0.48 of a percentage point to 6.82 per cent. In plain terms, the cheapest time to lock in a fixed rate from a major bank has probably already passed for this cycle, at least for now.
The moves matter because fixed rates are priced off where lenders expect rates to go, not where the cash rate sits today. When fixed rates rise before the RBA acts, lenders are telling you what they think comes next.
What the banks have done
CommBank’s changes took effect on 22 September 2026, according to rate tables reported by Savings.com.au. For owner-occupiers paying principal and interest on a package loan, the one-year fixed rate rose 0.30 of a point to 6.78 per cent, the two-year rate rose 0.48 of a point to 6.82 per cent, the three-year rate rose 0.30 of a point to 6.89 per cent, the four-year rate rose 0.25 of a point to 6.89 per cent and the five-year rate rose 0.15 of a point to 6.94 per cent.
NAB, ANZ and Westpac had already made smaller fixed rate increases of up to about 0.2 of a point the week before, and industry reports put the number of lenders lifting at least some fixed terms in September at more than a dozen. Variable rates, by contrast, have not moved at the major banks yet. CommBank’s standard variable rate was reported at 6.34 per cent as of 22 September.
The detail worth noticing is where the biggest jump landed. The two-year term took the largest increase, which suggests lenders expect the cash rate to be higher over the next couple of years than it is today, rather than just for the next few months.
Why lenders are moving first
All four major banks now forecast a 0.25 point rise in the cash rate on 29 September, which would take it from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent. That would be the fourth increase of 2026, following hikes in February, March and May. The ABC reported that three of the big four (CommBank, Westpac and ANZ) also expect a further increase in November, which would lift the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, and that markets were pricing roughly a 90 per cent chance of a September move as of 22 September.
The trigger for the shift was a run of hawkish commentary from the RBA. Speaking at a CEDA event in Sydney on 22 September, Governor Michele Bullock said the jobs market was still putting upward pressure on wages and costs, and suggested unemployment of between 4.5 and 5 per cent would probably take enough heat out of it.
Inflation is the underlying issue. Annual CPI inflation was 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July 2026, according to the ABS, still well above the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target band.
The jobs data added a wrinkle
On 24 September the ABS reported that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in August, up from 4.5 per cent in July and above market expectations. Employment still grew by around 39,000, but that was driven by part-time roles, with full-time employment falling by about 6,000.
The ACTU used the figures to urge the RBA to hold. Commentators, however, suggested one softer month was unlikely to change Tuesday’s decision on its own, particularly given the Governor had just described unemployment of 4.5 to 5 per cent as likely enough to take the heat out of the labour market.
What a hike would mean for repayments
Reported estimates put the cost of a 0.25 point rise at about $90 a month on a $450,000, 30-year loan, and roughly the same on a $600,000 loan with 25 years left to run. Those figures assume the lender passes the increase on in full, which the major banks have typically done with cash rate rises.
For households already stretched, that comes on top of three earlier hikes this year. It is one reason consumer sentiment among mortgage holders has fallen sharply, as we covered in our look at September’s sentiment slump.
When fixed rates rise before the Reserve Bank moves, the market has already priced the hike. Fixing now is buying certainty, not a bargain.
Should you fix now?
This is general information only, not personal financial advice, and the right answer depends on your own circumstances. A few points are worth weighing.
The price of certainty has gone up. With major bank fixed rates now sitting around 6.8 to 6.9 per cent, fixing with a big four lender now costs more than a standard variable rate. At CommBank, for example, every owner-occupier fixed term is above its reported 6.34 per cent standard variable rate. You are paying a premium to protect yourself against further rises.
The whole market has not moved at once. Savings.com.au reported the lowest three-year fixed rate it tracked at 5.99 per cent and the lowest variable rate at 5.89 per cent as of 22 September. Smaller lenders often reprice later than the majors, so the spread between the cheapest and the most expensive offers can be wide.
Fixing has trade-offs. Most fixed loans limit extra repayments, may not offer a full offset account and can carry break costs if you sell or refinance early. If you expect a change in circumstances within the fixed term, those costs matter. Our explainer on fixed vs variable home loans goes through the pros and cons in more detail.
A split loan is a middle path. Some borrowers fix part of the balance for certainty and keep the rest variable for flexibility and offset access.
If you are weighing it up, it is worth taking time to compare fixed and variable home loan options across a range of lenders rather than only your current bank.
The bottom line
Lenders have moved ahead of the Reserve Bank, and CommBank’s 0.48 point rise on its two-year fixed rate is the clearest sign yet that the major banks expect rates to stay higher for longer. The RBA announces its decision at 2.30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September 2026. Whatever it decides, check what your own lender does next, compare offers across the market, and confirm current rates directly with lenders. For the official cash rate and statement, go to the Reserve Bank of Australia. All figures here were reported between 22 and 28 September 2026 and may change.