Australian home values fell 1.2% in October 2026, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, according to Cotality’s Home Value Index released on 2 November. National values are now 6.7% below their March 2026 peak, and the downturn has shifted north and west, with Brisbane and Perth falling faster than Sydney.
The October result is a touch weaker than September’s 1.1% fall, which we covered in our report on the sixth straight monthly decline. What stands out this month is the speed of the correction and how sharply buying activity has dried up.
What the October figures show
Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless said the speed of decline is tracking faster than any previous downturn over the past 40 years. Across the combined capitals, values are down 8.1% in the seven months since the peak. That compares with a 7.0% peak to trough fall in the 2022 to 2023 downturn and 8.2% in the 2017 to 2019 correction, the largest on Cotality’s records.
The biggest monthly falls in October, per Cotality:
- Brisbane: down 2.0% over the month and 6.1% over three months
- Perth: down 1.7% over the month and 5.7% over three months
- Sydney: down 1.6% over the month and 4.7% over three months
Cotality noted that virtually every suburb in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide lost value over the past three months. That is a sharp turnaround for markets that were among the strongest in the country until mid 2026. Perth, for example, was still showing double digit annual growth as recently as September.
In dollar terms, that 6.7% decline has taken roughly $63,400 off the national median dwelling value. Over a longer horizon the picture is more mixed: Cotality says Melbourne values are 7.3% lower than five years ago, while Sydney is 1.5% below its level in October 2021.
Sales have slumped further
The clearest sign of weakness is in transaction numbers. Cotality estimates that home sales over the past three months were 23% lower than a year ago and 18% below the previous five year average. Sydney sales were down about 30% on a year earlier and Brisbane about 29%.
Auction clearance rates across the combined capitals have been consistently below 50%. Private treaty sales are taking longer too, with the median home taking 39 days to sell, the longest since August 2020. Vendors are also giving more ground on price, with Cotality’s measure of vendor discounting at 4.7%, the largest since May 2019.
Supply is building even though fewer people are listing. Fresh listings are running about 18% below average, yet total advertised stock in the capitals is at its highest level for this time of year since 2019. Put simply, homes are coming onto the market more slowly, but they are selling more slowly still.
Lawless summed up the dynamic plainly, noting that buyers have more stock to choose from, more leverage and less urgency to buy. Despite this, he said buyers are “noticeably absent, reflecting low confidence”.
Why values keep falling
The backdrop has not changed much since last month. The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate four times this year to 4.60%, a cumulative 100 basis points, as we explained in our coverage of the September rate hike. Higher repayments reduce how much lenders will approve, which caps what buyers can bid.
The RBA’s November decision is due at 2:30pm AEDT today, 3 November, and markets and most bank economists expect a further 25 basis point rise to 4.85%. Cotality estimates another hike would lift the average owner occupier variable rate to around 6.7%. Unemployment was 4.7% in September and annual trimmed mean inflation was 3.7%, which keeps pressure on the RBA and on household budgets alike.
Even so, Cotality’s central view is measured. Lawless said the most likely outcome remains a gradual drift lower in values rather than a more material downturn.
In a falling market, the buyer with approved finance and no deadline holds the cards. Make sure that is you before you start negotiating.
What it means for buyers, sellers and owners
This is general information only, not personal financial or property advice. With that in mind, a few points are worth weighing:
- Buyers have real negotiating power. Longer selling times, rising stock and the largest vendor discounts in more than six years mean there is usually room to negotiate on price, settlement dates and conditions. It helps to plan your offer and negotiation strategy in a buyer’s market before you inspect.
- Check your pre-approval after today. If the RBA lifts rates this afternoon, lenders are likely to reassess borrowing capacity at the higher rate. A pre-approval issued a few months ago may no longer stretch as far.
- Sellers should price to the current market. With clearance rates under 50% and homes taking around 39 days to sell, results from the start of the year are a poor guide. Recent comparable sales in your street or suburb are more reliable.
- Owners do not lose money on paper. A fall in value only becomes a realised loss if you sell or need to refinance with little equity. Recent buyers with small deposits in Brisbane, Perth or Sydney are the most exposed, and should speak to their lender early if repayments are becoming hard to manage.
- Nobody can call the bottom. Forecasts vary and depend heavily on what the RBA does next, so it is safer to buy or sell on your own timeline than on a prediction.
The bottom line
Australian home values fell 1.2% in October 2026, the seventh monthly decline in a row, leaving national values 6.7% below their March peak. Brisbane and Perth have overtaken Sydney as the fastest falling capitals, sales are about 23% lower than a year ago and vendor discounts are the deepest since 2019. With another rate rise widely expected at today’s RBA meeting, conditions are likely to stay in buyers’ favour for now, although Cotality still expects a gradual drift rather than a sharp crash. Figures are from Cotality’s Home Value Index for October, released on 2 November 2026, and may be revised. Check the latest data at Cotality and rate decisions at the Reserve Bank of Australia.